Authors & Affiliations
Egorov A.F., Kalashnikov A.G., Korobejnikov V.V., Moseev A.L., Moseev P.A.
A.I. Leypunsky Institute for Physics and Power, Obninsk, Russia
Strategic planning and modeling of NP development requires comprehensive understanding of the issues pertaining to both power production industry on the whole (resources, environment, national development, etc.), and nuclear power (economy, infrastructure, waste management, etc.). Mathematical models (scenarios) of NP development refer to medium-term and long-term prospects— 30—50, 100 and more years. It is related to a long life cycle of nuclear power system (NPS) — over 100 years. For correct estimation of long-term nuclear programs sustainability it is important to get the regular reflection of the power technology renewal processes and accounting of the fuel component of the electric power cost at all the stages of NP structural elements life cycle. In the given work the MESSAGE software package is widely used to predict the energy system development and to get consolidated balances of nuclear material production and consumption, and that of electric power generation. As an outcome the software gives the optimum strategy of long-term energy industry development. The objective of this study consists in the maximum approximation of the MESSAGE calculations to the results of the CYCLE scenarios; in the detailed analysis of the accuracy of MESSAGE nuclear material balance modeling, in the course of identification of NP development strategies on the basis of fast and thermal neutron reactors. In order to present the results of the mathematical models operation, the most representative output data were chosen in terms of demonstration of a significant difference in the work of the codes on modeling of scenarios. With the aim to reflect the MESSAGE processes occurring at the fuel cycle stages more correctly, the averaged data got by the CYCLE code were used. The obtained results on the consumption of natural uranium demonstrate reasonable agreement. This fact may make it possible to use the MESSAGE code for estimation of this nuclear fuel cycle characteristic. Once again it should be noted that small deviations of modeling results in MESSAGE were obtained due to the fact averaged output data from the CYCLE calculations were used as input data for the MESSAGE code.
Nuclear power (NP), energy industry, nuclear materials, nuclear reactor, fast and thermal neutrons, software package CYCLE and MESSAGE, mathematical model of nuclear power development
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